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Computer code serves as a useful analogy for what our genes do, but the complexity and messiness of life go well beyond simple analogies and mathematical models.
Can a set of simple instructions produce complex, three-dimensional living structures?
When our brains don’t have a good intuition for reasoning with numbers, explicit probabilistic thinking can lead to improved decision-making.
When faced with a difficult decision, should you go with your gut or carefully calculate the attendant risks?
When a German retiree proved a famous long-standing mathematical conjecture, the response was underwhelming.
The same problem that caused the 2007 financial crisis also tripped up the polling data ahead of this year’s presidential election.
The results of this year’s presidential election made a mockery of analytical election forecast modelers.
Aside from potential clues gleaned from a fluke result, it would take hundreds of U.S. presidential elections to definitely conclude that one election forecasting model is superior to another.
Presidential election forecasts are historically successful and appear to be highly precise. Yet they’re often contradictory. What would it take to trust them?