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probability

<p>When a German retiree proved a famous long-standing mathematical conjecture, the response was underwhelming.</p>
statistics

A Long-Sought Proof, Found and Almost Lost

When a German retiree proved a famous long-standing mathematical conjecture, the response was underwhelming.

<p>The same problem that caused the 2007 financial crisis also tripped up the polling data ahead of this year’s presidential election.</p>
Abstractions blog

The Devil in the Polling Data

The same problem that caused the 2007 financial crisis also tripped up the polling data ahead of this year’s presidential election.

<p>The results of this year’s presidential election made a mockery of analytical election forecast modelers.</p>
Abstractions blog

Why (Almost) Everyone Was Wrong

The results of this year’s presidential election made a mockery of analytical election forecast modelers.

<p>Aside from potential clues gleaned from a fluke result, it would take hundreds of U.S. presidential elections to definitely conclude that one election forecasting model is superior to another.</p>
insights puzzle

Solution: ‘Which Forecasts Are True?’

Aside from potential clues gleaned from a fluke result, it would take hundreds of U.S. presidential elections to definitely conclude that one election forecasting model is superior to another.

<p>Presidential election forecasts are historically successful and appear to be highly precise. Yet they’re often contradictory. What would it take to trust them?</p>
insights puzzle

How Can We Tell Which Forecasts Are True?

Presidential election forecasts are historically successful and appear to be highly precise. Yet they’re often contradictory. What would it take to trust them?

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">City blocks help illustrate why walking randomly tends to take you away from your starting point.</span></p>
insights puzzle

Solution: ‘A Drunkard’s Walk in Manhattan’

City blocks help illustrate why walking randomly tends to take you away from your starting point.

<p>Why is it that when you walk randomly, the more you walk, the farther you get from your starting point?</p>
insights puzzle

A Drunkard’s Walk in Manhattan

Why is it that when you walk randomly, the more you walk, the farther you get from your starting point?

<p>Try these shortcuts for solving problems that seem to require a lengthy calculation.</p>
insights puzzle

Solution: ‘A Random Place at the Table’

Try these shortcuts for solving problems that seem to require a lengthy calculation.

<p>The famous Sleeping Beauty problem has divided probability theorists, decision theorists and philosophers for over 15 years. Puzzle columnist Pradeep Mutalik claims to have discovered the source of confusion.</p>
insights puzzle

Why Sleeping Beauty Is Lost in Time

The famous Sleeping Beauty problem has divided probability theorists, decision theorists and philosophers for over 15 years. Puzzle columnist Pradeep Mutalik claims to have discovered the source of confusion.