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The same problem that caused the 2007 financial crisis also tripped up the polling data ahead of this year’s presidential election.
The results of this year’s presidential election made a mockery of analytical election forecast modelers.
Aside from potential clues gleaned from a fluke result, it would take hundreds of U.S. presidential elections to definitely conclude that one election forecasting model is superior to another.
Presidential election forecasts are historically successful and appear to be highly precise. Yet they’re often contradictory. What would it take to trust them?
City blocks help illustrate why walking randomly tends to take you away from your starting point.
Why is it that when you walk randomly, the more you walk, the farther you get from your starting point?
Try these shortcuts for solving problems that seem to require a lengthy calculation.
The famous Sleeping Beauty problem has divided probability theorists, decision theorists and philosophers for over 15 years. Puzzle columnist Pradeep Mutalik claims to have discovered the source of confusion.
The solution to this month’s puzzle gets to the bottom of the famously ambiguous Sleeping Beauty probability problem.