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probability

insights puzzle

How Can We Tell Which Forecasts Are True?

Presidential election forecasts are historically successful and appear to be highly precise. Yet they’re often contradictory. What would it take to trust them?

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Solution: ‘A Drunkard’s Walk in Manhattan’

City blocks help illustrate why walking randomly tends to take you away from your starting point.

insights puzzle

A Drunkard’s Walk in Manhattan

Why is it that when you walk randomly, the more you walk, the farther you get from your starting point?

Olena Shmahalo/Quanta Magazine
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Solution: ‘A Random Place at the Table’

Try these shortcuts for solving problems that seem to require a lengthy calculation.

insights puzzle

Why Sleeping Beauty Is Lost in Time

The famous Sleeping Beauty problem has divided probability theorists, decision theorists and philosophers for over 15 years. Puzzle columnist Pradeep Mutalik claims to have discovered the source of confusion.

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Solution: ‘Sleeping Beauty’s Dilemma’

The solution to this month’s puzzle gets to the bottom of the famously ambiguous Sleeping Beauty probability problem.

insights puzzle

Sleeping Beauty’s Necker Cube Dilemma

Like a visually ambiguous Necker cube, the famous Sleeping Beauty problem can be perceived in two seemingly valid ways.

insights puzzle

Solution: ‘The Road Less Traveled’

The solution to this month’s puzzle uses both mathematics and psychology to explain trouble with choosing the fastest route.

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The Road Less Traveled

When there are two paths to your destination, why does it always seem like you’re on the road with more traffic?